Role of the Electrocardiographic MVP Risk Score (Morphology-Voltage-P Wave Duration) in Predicting the Development of...

There is a global tendency to emphasize the prevention and early diagnosis of diseases that have a great impact on public health. Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a prevalence affecting 1.5-2% of the general population. Certain variables of the P wave allow us to identify and stratify patients at risk of developing AF.

This is an observational, descriptive, and longitudinal study to determine the applicability of the electrocardiographic (ECG) morphology, voltage, and P wave duration (MVP) risk score to predict the development of AF in consecutive patients with systemic hypertension (SH) in an initial follow-up of 12 months.

Initially, 104 patients were included, of whom 12 died during follow-up and 17 did not attend subsequent checkups during the COVID-19 pandemic; therefore, they were excluded. The study patients were 75, of whom AF was detected in 25 patients (33%). The average duration of the P wave was 120 ± 26 ms, the average voltage was 0.1 ± 0.5 Mv. The high-risk MVP ECG score had an [area under the curve, 0.69; 95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.59-0.79] and demonstrated a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100%, a negative predictive value of 76%, and a sensitivity of 40% for predicting the development of AF.

The present study establishes for the first time that SH patients who possess a high-risk MVP ECG score have a significantly higher incidence of developing AF. The high-risk MVP Score has a specificity and a positive predictive value of 100% and a high negative predictive value with a moderate sensitivity for the prediction of the development of AF in SH patients.