Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Abdominal Surgery Morbidity, Mortality, and Hospital Readmission

Medicaid expansion's (ME) impact on postoperative outcomes after abdominal surgery remains poorly defined. We aimed to evaluate ME's effect on surgical morbidity, mortality, and readmissions in a state that expanded Medicaid (Virginia) compared to a state that did not (Tennessee) over the same time period.

Virginia Surgical Quality Collaborative (VSQC) American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data for Medicaid, uninsured, and private insurance patients undergoing abdominal procedures before Virginia's ME (3/22/18-12/31/18) were compared with post-ME (1/1/19-12/31/19), as were corresponding non-ME state Tennessee Surgical Quality Collaborative (TSQC) data for the same 2018 and 2019 time periods. Postexpansion odds ratios for 30-d morbidity, 30-d mortality, and 30-d unplanned readmission were estimated using propensity score-adjusted logistic regression models.

In Virginia, 4753 abdominal procedures, 2097 pre-ME were compared to 2656 post-ME. In Tennessee, 5956 procedures, 2484 in 2018 were compared to 3472 in 2019. VSQC's proportion of Medicaid population increased following ME (8.9% versus 18.8%, P < 0.001) while uninsured patients decreased (20.4% versus 6.4%, P < 0.001). Post-ME VSQC had fewer 30-d readmissions (12.2% versus 6.0%, P = 0.013). Post-ME VSQC Medicaid patients had significantly lower probability of morbidity (-8.18, 95% confidence interval: -15.52 ∼ -0.84, P = 0.029) and readmission (-6.92, 95% confidence interval: -12.56 ∼ -1.27, P = 0.016) compared to pre-ME. There were no differences in probability of morbidity or readmission in the TSQC Medicaid population between study periods (both P > 0.05); there were no differences in mortality between study periods in VSQC and TSQC patient populations (both P > 0.05).

ME was associated with decreased 30-d morbidity and unplanned readmissions in the VSQC. Data-driven policies accounting for ME benefits should be considered.