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"This behavior strikes us as ideal": assessment and anticipations of Huisman (2022)
Alexandra Sarafoglou1, František Bartoš2, Angelika Stefan2,3
1Department of Psychology, University of Amsterdam, Nieuwe Achtergracht 129B, 1001, NK, Amsterdam, Netherlands. alexandra.sarafoglou@gmail.com.
Abstract:
Huisman (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 1-10. 2022) argued that a valid measure of evidence should indicate more support in favor of a true alternative hypothesis when sample size is large than when it is small. Bayes factors may violate this pattern and hence Huisman concluded that Bayes factors are invalid as a measure of evidence. In this brief comment we call attention to the following: (1) Huisman's purported anomaly is in fact dictated by probability theory; (2) Huisman's anomaly has been discussed and explained in the statistical literature since 1939; the anomaly was also highlighted in the Psychonomic Bulletin & Review article by Rouder et al. (2009), who interpreted the anomaly as "ideal": an interpretation diametrically opposed to that of Huisman. We conclude that when intuition clashes with probability theory, chances are that it is intuition that needs schooling.
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