[Using Liver Function Indicators to Predict Massive Blood Transfusion in Orthotopic Liver Transplantation]

To explore the predictive effect of preoperative liver function indicators for intraoperative massive blood transfusion in orthotopic liver transplantation and to establish a prediction model.

We retrospectively analyzed the relevant data of 607 patients who underwent orthotopic liver transplantation in the Department of Liver Surgery, West China Hospital, Sichuan University between January 1, 2015 and June 30, 2021. According to the intraoperative transfusion volume of leukocyte-reduced red blood cells in additive solution, the patients were divided into a massive blood transfusion (MBT) group and a non-massive blood transfusion (NMBT) group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to analyze the risk factors of intraoperative MBT in orthotopic liver transplantation, the calibration of the predictive model was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the discrimination power of the predictive model was measured by area under the curve ( AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

According to the results of logistic regression, alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), total bilirubin (TBIL), direct bilirubin (DBIL), albumin (ALB), and Child-Pugh score showed no correlation with the risk of MBT in orthotopic liver transplantation operation. Platelet count (PLT) (odds ratio [ OR]=0.90, 95% confidence interval [ CI]: 0.09-0.19, P=0.02), international normalized ratio (INR) ( OR=19.43, 95% CI: 7.64-19.44, P<0.01), prothrombin time (PT) ( OR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.25-1.63, P<0.01), and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) ( OR=0.92, 95% CI: 0.90-0.95, P<0.01) were identified as the risk factors of intraoperative MBT in orthotopic liver transplantation. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the predictive model had good calibration ( χ ²=9.06, P=0.48) and discrimination power ( AUC=0.80, 95% CI 0.766-0.834, P<0.01).

A predictive model based on the preoperative PLT, INR, PT, and APTT of patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation was established and can be used to predict the risk of intraoperative MBT in liver transplantation patients.