Global patterns of cancer transitions: A modelling study.

Area of Science:

• Global Health
• Epidemiology
• Oncology

Background:

• Cancer represents a significant global disease burden.
• A transition from infection-related to non-infection-related cancers is occurring worldwide.
• Understanding these shifts is crucial for public health strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To characterize changes in the burden of major cancer types globally.
• To identify distinct global patterns of cancer transition.
• To explore associations between these patterns and socioeconomic indicators.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (1990-2019) for 10 common cancers.
• Employed a two-stage modeling approach: Growth Mixture Models (GMMs) followed by Latent Class Analysis.
• Kruskal-Wallis H tests assessed links between transition patterns and socioeconomic factors.

Main Results:

• Identified three cancer transition patterns: unfavorable, intermediate, and favorable.
• Lung, breast, and colorectal cancer trajectories showed strong associations with transition patterns.
• The unfavorable stage, linked to lower socioeconomic status, shows increasing incidence of major cancers.

Conclusions:

• Distinct cancer transition patterns (unfavorable, intermediate, favorable) exist globally.
• Socioeconomically disadvantaged regions often exhibit unfavorable transition patterns.
• Tailored interventions are essential for resource-limited settings to address cancer burden shifts.