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A data-driven Markov process for infectious disease transmission.

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A novel Markov model with infinite states accurately simulates COVID-19 transmission dynamics. This infectious disease model aids in evaluating intervention strategies and understanding outbreak spread.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The 2019 coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) presents significant global public health and socioeconomic challenges.
  • Understanding infectious disease transmission is crucial for developing effective control measures.
  • Existing models may not fully capture the complexities of viral outbreaks like COVID-19.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel mathematical model for characterizing viral infectious disease transmission.
  • To develop a simulation method for rapid model analysis.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of intervention strategies against infectious diseases.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a level-dependent Markov model with an infinite state space.
  • Implementation of a simulation method incorporating heterogeneous infection.
  • Model validation using COVID-19 data from Johns Hopkins University via MATLAB simulations.

Main Results:

  • The proposed model effectively captures the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, with and without interventions.
  • Simulation results align well with real-world COVID-19 data.
  • Analysis of model parameters provides insights into transmission dynamics.

Conclusions:

  • The level-dependent Markov model offers a robust framework for studying infectious diseases with potentially infinite infected individuals.
  • The model aids in assessing the impact of various intervention strategies.
  • This work advances the theoretical understanding of mathematical modeling in infectious disease epidemiology.