Combining a parsimonious mathematical model with infection data from tailor-made experiments to understand
Anna M Gamża1,2, Thomas J Hagenaars3, Miriam G J Koene4
1Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands. anna.gamza@ed.ac.uk.
Abstract:
Although most infections are transmitted through the environment, the processes underlying the environmental stage of transmission are still poorly understood for most systems. Improved understanding of the environmental transmission dynamics is important for effective non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. To study the mechanisms underlying environmental transmission we formulated a parsimonious modelling framework including hypothesised mechanisms of pathogen dispersion and decay. To calibrate and validate the model, we conducted a series of experiments studying distance-dependent transmission of Campylobacter jejuni in broilers. We obtained informative simultaneous estimates for all three model parameters: the parameter of C. jejuni inactivation, the diffusion coefficient describing pathogen dispersion, and the transmission rate parameter. The time and distance dependence of transmission in the fitted model is quantitatively consistent with marked spatiotemporal patterns in the experimental observations. These results, for C. jejuni in broilers, show that the application of our modelling framework to suitable transmission data can provide mechanistic insight in environmental pathogen transmission.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Infection
The chain begins with pathogens: bacteria, viruses, fungi, prions, or parasites such as protozoa helminths. These can be present on the skin as transient or resident flora, or they can be acquired from the environment. Identifying and treating the type of infection and...
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
Causality in Epidemiology
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Models of Health Promotion and Illness Prevention II
The agent-host-environment model states that disease results...


