Improved protein structure prediction with trRosettaX2, AlphaFold2, and optimized MSAs in CASP15

We present the monomer and multimer structure prediction results of our methods in CASP15. We first designed an elaborate pipeline that leverages complementary sequence databases and advanced database searching algorithms to generate high-quality multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). Top MSAs were then selected for the subsequent step of structure prediction. We utilized trRosettaX2 and AlphaFold2 for monomer structure prediction (group name Yang-Server), and AlphaFold-Multimer for multimer structure prediction (group name Yang-Multimer). Yang-Server and Yang-Multimer are ranked at the top and the fourth, respectively, for monomer and multimer structure prediction. For 94 monomers, the average TM-score of the predicted structure models by Yang-Server is 0.876, compared to 0.798 by the default AlphaFold2 (i.e., the group NBIS-AF2-standard). For 42 multimers, the average DockQ score of the predicted structure models by Yang-Multimer is 0.464, compared to 0.389 by the default AlphaFold-Multimer (i.e., the group NBIS-AF2-multimer). Detailed analysis of the results shows that several factors contribute to the improvement, including improved MSAs, iterated modeling for large targets, interplay between monomer and multimer structure prediction for intertwined structures, etc. However, the structure predictions for orphan proteins and multimers remain challenging, and breakthroughs in this area are anticipated in the future.