[Trends of mortality from cirrhosis in France between 1925 and 1982]

In 1982, 13,866 deaths secondary to cirrhosis were reported. Between 1925 and 1982, the number of deaths increased by 163 p. 100. This overall change was observed gradually: profound drop in the cirrhosis mortality rate during the Second World War, increase between 1945 and 1967, stabilization between 1967 and 1975 and more pronounced decline from then on. Cirrhosis mortality rate per 100,000 increased from 9.17 to 28.21 (+208 p. 100) in males and from 3.63 to 10.38 (+186 p. 100) in females from 1945 to 1982. The increase was approximately the same whatever the age. A cohort effect was observed in both sexes. There were two successive waves of increased mortality separated by an interval of non augmentation for the cohorts born between 1906 and 1915 and between 1931 and 1940. Since 1967, mortality due to cirrhosis has stopped increasing in both sexes. These changes may be related to decreasing alcohol consumption in France, certainly one of the major objectives in present day health programs. Abrupt reduction of alcohol consumption should be followed by a dramatic fall in the number of deaths from cirrhosis. Progressive decline of consumption is possibly associated with a decrease in the incidence of the disease. In 2,000, the rate for cirrhosis mortality is expected to be the same as that observed in the middle of the 20th century.