Multi-hazard exposure mapping under climate crisis using random forest algorithm for the Kalimantan Islands,
Sujung Heo1, Sangjin Park2, Dong Kun Lee3
1Interdisciplinary Program and Life Science, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea.
Scientific Reports
|August 18, 2023
Summary
Climate change exacerbates natural hazards in Indonesia. This study maps drought and forest fire risks in Kalimantan, predicting increased occurrences under future climate scenarios for better hazard assessment.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Disaster Risk Management
Background:
- Indonesia faces frequent natural disasters, with climate change intensifying risks from events like droughts and forest fires.
- Kalimantan island is particularly vulnerable to these climate-related hazards, impacting lives and property.
- Understanding the contributing factors and future projections is crucial for effective mitigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the contributing factors to droughts and forest fires in Kalimantan.
- To create single and multi-risk maps for these hazards.
- To project future drought and forest fire risks under different climate change scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Mapping of eleven key contributing factors (climate, topography, anthropogenic, vegetation).
- Application of Random Forest (RF) for single and multi-risk mapping.
- Utilizing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for future climate scenario projections (RCP-SSP2-4.5, RCP-SSP5-8.5).
Main Results:
- Identified key factors influencing drought and forest fire occurrences.
- Generated spatial risk maps for current and future conditions.
- Projected an increase in drought (22.6%) and forest fire (21.7%) probabilities, with 2.6% of sites facing both hazards.
- Both RCP-SSP2-4.5 and RCP-SSP5-8.5 scenarios indicate a rise in these hazards.
Conclusions:
- The study provides crucial insights into the spatial behavior and increased likelihood of droughts and forest fires in Kalimantan.
- Findings support researchers and stakeholders in risk assessment and developing mitigation strategies.
- Predictive risk maps are essential tools for understanding and managing climate change impacts on natural disasters.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
01:29Applications of GIS: Disaster Management and Emergency Response
108
Geographic Information System (GIS) technology is essential for risk identification, action prioritization, and resource optimization in critical situations like flooding and earthquakes. By integrating spatial and demographic data, GIS provides a comprehensive framework for emergency response.GIS integrates data layers, like rainfall intensity, topography, elevation profiles, and river levels, to model high-risk flood zones. These layers assess areas susceptible to flooding based on their...
108
01:11Hazard Rate
135
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
135
01:17Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
70
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
70
01:12Hazard Ratio
157
The hazard ratio (HR) is a widely used measure in clinical trials to compare the risk of events, such as death or disease recurrence, between two groups over time. It reflects the ratio of hazard rates—the instantaneous risk of the event occurring—between a treatment group and a control group. This measure provides valuable insights into the relative effectiveness of a treatment by assessing how the risk of an event differs between the two groups.
For example, in a clinical trial...
For example, in a clinical trial...
157
02:41Responses to Drought and Flooding
10.7K
Water plays a significant role in the life cycle of plants. However, insufficient or excess of water can be detrimental and pose a serious threat to plants.
10.7K
01:50Global Climate Change
24.5K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.5K