Innovation city and low-carbon future: a quasinatural experiment from China

Using the difference-in-difference model and panel data from 283 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2019, this study assesses the effect on CO₂ emissions of an innovative city pilot policy and analyzes its mechanism using the mediation effect model. The findings demonstrate that the pilot policy significantly reduces urban carbon emissions overall, and this finding holds even after conducting several stability tests. Innovative pilot cities can cut carbon emissions by 11.5% compared to nonpilot cities and thus significantly impact carbon reduction. Reducing carbon emissions is possible through three mechanisms. These are the enrichment of cultural resources, the development of technological innovation levels, and the optimization of industrial structure. There is a significant lag in how the innovative city pilot policy affects this reduction. The emission reduction effects of innovative pilot policies on different pollution levels, regions, and cities of various sizes are heterogeneous. In the long run, the scope of pilot projects needs enlargement in an orderly manner, and specific policies should be implemented according to local conditions. Meanwhile, advanced technologies are required in cities of different scales to build innovative development mechanisms for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and environmental regulations should be strengthened to implement in urban areas the concept of green and sustainable ecological development.