[Influence Mechanism of New Quality Productive Forces on Carbon Emissions in Yangtze River Delta Cities]

New quality productive forces serve as a crucial driver for achieving the dual carbon goals， while optimization of energy consumption structure and industrial structure rationalization are key pathways toward these goals. This study utilizes panel data from 41 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration spanning from 2012 to 2022 and employs the entropy weight method to measure the level of new-quality productive forces. A two-way fixed effects model is adopted to examine the impact and mechanism of new-quality productive forces on urban carbon emissions. The findings are as follows： ① New quality productive forces significantly reduced urban carbon emissions. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the carbon-reducing effect was more pronounced in small and medium-sized cities， cities with lower levels of economic development， and resource-based cities. ② The development of new quality productive forces affected both the energy consumption structure and the rationalization of the industrial structure， thereby reducing urban carbon emissions through optimizing energy use and promoting industrial transformation. ③ In the process by which new quality productive forces influenced urban carbon emissions， government intervention weakened， while environmental regulation strengthened， their emission-reduction effects.