Machine-Learned Algorithms to Predict the Risk of Pneumothorax Requiring Chest Tube Placement after Lung Biopsy

To develop a machine-learned algorithm to predict the risk of postlung biopsy pneumothorax requiring chest tube placement (CTP) to facilitate preprocedural decision making, optimize patient care, and improve resource allocation.

This retrospective study collected clinical and imaging features of biopsy samples obtained from patients with lung nodule biopsy and included information from 59 procedures resulting in pneumothorax requiring CTP and randomly selected 67 procedures without CTP (convenience sample). The data were divided into 70 and 30 as training and testing sets, respectively. Conventional machine-learned binary classifiers were explored with preprocedural imaging and clinical data as input features and CTP as the output.

There was no single pathognomonic imaging or predictive clinical feature. For the independent test set under the high-specificity mode, a decision tree, logistic regression, and Naïve Bayes classifier achieved accuracies of identifying CTP at 0.79, 0.93, and 0.89 and area under receiver operating curves (AUROCs) of 0.68, 0.76, and 0.82, respectively. Under high-sensitivity mode, a decision tree, logistic regression, and Naïve Bayes achieved accuracies of identifying CTP of 0.60, 0.45, and 0.60 with AUROCs of 0.71, 0.81, and 0.82, respectively. High importance features included lesion character, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lesion depth, and age. A coarse decision tree requiring 4 inputs achieved comparable performance as other methods and previous machine learning prediction studies.

The results support the possibility of predicting pneumothorax requiring CTP after biopsy based on an automated decision support, reliant on readily available preprocedural information.