Germline-encoded specificities and the predictability of the B cell response

Antibodies result from the competition of B cell lineages evolving under selection for improved antigen recognition, a process known as affinity maturation. High-affinity antibodies to pathogens such as HIV, influenza, and SARS-CoV-2 are frequently reported to arise from B cells whose receptors, the precursors to antibodies, are encoded by particular immunoglobulin alleles. This raises the possibility that the presence of particular germline alleles in the B cell repertoire is a major determinant of the quality of the antibody response. Alternatively, initial differences in germline alleles' propensities to form high-affinity receptors might be overcome by chance events during affinity maturation. We first investigate these scenarios in simulations: when germline-encoded fitness differences are large relative to the rate and effect size variation of somatic mutations, the same germline alleles persistently dominate the response of different individuals. In contrast, if germline-encoded advantages can be easily overcome by subsequent mutations, allele usage becomes increasingly divergent over time, a pattern we then observe in mice experimentally infected with influenza virus. We investigated whether affinity maturation might nonetheless strongly select for particular amino acid motifs across diverse genetic backgrounds, but we found no evidence of convergence to similar CDR3 sequences or amino acid substitutions. These results suggest that although germline-encoded specificities can lead to similar immune responses between individuals, diverse evolutionary routes to high affinity limit the genetic predictability of responses to infection and vaccination.