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Ambiguity aversion, modern Bayesianism and small worlds.

Nikitas Pittis1, Phoebe Koundouri2, Panagiotis Samartzis1

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Rational agents under uncertainty may not exhibit ambiguity aversion (AA) if they use modern Bayesianism (MB). MB is normatively superior to classical Bayesianism (CB), especially in complex "large worlds".

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Theory
  • Epistemology
  • Rational Choice Theory

Background:

  • Ambiguity aversion (AA) is a key concept in decision theory, explaining choices under uncertainty.
  • Classical Bayesianism (CB) and Modern Bayesianism (MB) offer different frameworks for belief formation.
  • The validity of AA in standard examples like Schmeidler's and Ellsberg's is questioned within MB.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if a rational agent can exhibit ambiguity aversion (AA) under different Bayesian frameworks.
  • To evaluate the normative superiority of MB over CB.
  • To re-examine the motivation for AA in light of MB.

Main Methods:

  • Revisiting Schmeidler's coin-based example within the MB framework.
  • Analyzing the implications of MB for belief formation in
  • small worlds
  • ,

Main Results:

  • A rational MB agent in a "small world" cannot exhibit AA.
  • MB avoids logical inconsistencies between subjective probability and objective chance.
  • MB resolves the "old evidence" problem and avoids "cognitive dissonance".

Conclusions:

  • The motivation for AA based on "small world" examples is weak.
  • MB is normatively superior to CB.
  • AA may be a property of "large worlds" where MB is infeasible.