[Association between volatile organic compounds and mortality risk of stroke]

Objective: To investigate the effect of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) exposure in the atmosphere on the risk of daily death from stroke in Guangzhou. Methods: Daily average concentrations of twelve atmospheric VOCs, meteorological factors, and daily deaths for stroke and its subtypes (including ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke) in Guangzhou from 2020 to 2021 were collected. The time-series Poisson generalized additive model was established to analyze the relationship between daily average concentrations of atmospheric VOCs and daily mortality from a stroke on different lag days. The season, gender, and age group further performed stratification analysis. Results: Toluene and n-pentane were associated with a higher mortality risk from stroke and its subtypes. For each interquartile range (IQR) increment in toluene concentration at lag0- 1 days, the RRs for mortality from stroke and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.060 (95%CI: 1.036-1.085) and 1.071 (95%CI: 1.030-1.113), respectively. For each IQR increment in n-pentane concentration, the RR for mortality from ischemic stroke was 1.064 (95%CI: 1.030-1.099). The effect estimates of VOCs may be higher during the cold season and among women and people aged ≥75 years. For each IQR increment in toluene concentration, the RRs for mortality risk of stroke in the cold season and women were 1.099 (95%CI: 1.056-1.143) and 1.085 (95%CI: 1.050-1.120), respectively. For n-pentane, the RR for death risk of stroke in people aged ≥75 years old was 1.072 (95%CI: 1.036-1.109). Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the effect estimates fluctuated less when PM_2.5 and O₃ were separately introduced for the two-pollutant model, as well as changing the degrees of freedom for covariates. Conclusions: This study suggests that VOCs may be an independent risk factor for daily mortality from stroke. Moreover, Toluene presented the most significant health impact.