Carbohydrate-insulin model: does the conventional view of obesity reverse cause and effect?

Conventional obesity treatment, based on the First Law of Thermodynamics, assumes that excess body fat gain is driven by overeating, and that all calories are metabolically alike in this regard. Hence, to lose weight one must ultimately eat less and move more. However, this prescription rarely succeeds over the long term, in part because calorie restriction elicits predictable biological responses that oppose ongoing weight loss. The carbohydrate-insulin model posits the opposite causal direction: overeating doesn't drive body fat increase; instead, the process of storing excess fat drives overeating. A diet high in rapidly digestible carbohydrates raises the insulin-to-glucagon ratio, shifting energy partitioning towards storage in adipose, leaving fewer calories for metabolically active and fuel sensing tissues. Consequently, hunger increases, and metabolic rate slows in the body's attempt to conserve energy. A small shift in substrate partitioning though this mechanism could account for the slow but progressive weight gain characteristic of common forms of obesity. From this perspective, the conventional calorie-restricted, low-fat diet amounts to symptomatic treatment, failing to target the underlying predisposition towards excess fat deposition. A dietary strategy to lower insulin secretion may increase the effectiveness of long-term weight management and chronic disease prevention. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Causes of obesity: theories, conjectures and evidence (Part II)'.