Gastric cancer incidence based on endoscopic Kyoto classification of gastritis

Gastric cancer (GC) incidence based on the endoscopic Kyoto classification of gastritis has not been systematically investigated using time-to-event analysis.

To examine GC incidence in an endoscopic surveillance cohort.

This study was retrospectively conducted at the Toyoshima Endoscopy Clinic. Patients who underwent two or more esophagogastroduodenoscopies were enrolled. GC incidence was based on Kyoto classification scores, such as atrophy, intestinal metaplasia (IM), enlarged folds (EFs), nodularity, diffuse redness (DR), and total Kyoto scores. Hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age and sex were calculated using a Cox hazard model.

A total of 6718 patients were enrolled (median age 54.0 years; men 44.2%). During the follow-up period (max 5.02 years; median 2.56 years), GC developed in 34 patients. The average frequency of GCs per year was 0.19%. Kyoto atrophy scores 1 [HR with score 0 as reference: 3.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06 to 12.61], 2 (11.60, 3.82-35.27), IM score 2 (9.92, 4.37-22.54), EF score 1 (4.03, 1.63-9.96), DR scores 1 (6.22, 2.65-14.56), and 2 (10.01, 3.73-26.86) were associated with GC incidence, whereas nodularity scores were not. The total Kyoto scores of 4 (HR with total Kyoto scores 0-1 as reference: 6.23, 95%CI: 1.93 to 20.13, P = 0.002) and 5-8 (16.45, 6.29-43.03, P < 0.001) were more likely to develop GC, whereas the total Kyoto scores 2-3 were not. The HR of the total Kyoto score for developing GC per 1 rank was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.46 to 2.09, P < 0.001).

A high total Kyoto score (≥ 4) was associated with GC incidence. The endoscopy-based diagnosis of gastritis can stratify GC risk.