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Event Study Design for Modeling Early Relaxation in Turkish Public with COVID-19 Vaccine
Merve Keser1, Gorkem Sariyer2, Serpil Kahraman1
1Department of Economics, Yasar University, İzmir, Turkey.
Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
|September 4, 2023
Summary
The initiation of COVID-19 vaccination in Turkey led to public behavioral relaxation, increasing daily cases. Vaccination of older adults had a more significant and immediate impact on case numbers compared to healthcare worker vaccination.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Behavioral Science
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitates vaccination efforts globally.
- While vaccine rollout is studied, the impact of early vaccination on public behavior and subsequent case numbers remains less understood, particularly in Turkey.
- Existing literature focuses on vaccine hesitancy and willingness, but not the behavioral relaxation post-vaccination initiation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the effect of early COVID-19 vaccination initiation on public behavior and daily case numbers in Turkey.
- To analyze the impact of two distinct vaccination events: healthcare personnel vaccination and vaccination of citizens aged 65 and over.
- To explore the relationship between vaccination, residential mobility, and COVID-19 case increases.
Main Methods:
- An event study analysis was employed using daily data on new COVID-19 cases, the stringency index, and residential mobility.
- Two key events were defined: Event 1 (vaccination of health personnel, Jan 13, 2021) and Event 2 (vaccination of citizens aged 65+, Feb 12, 2021).
- An estimation window of 14 days was used for both events, with the study period concluding on April 12, 2021, to focus on early vaccination stages.
Main Results:
- Average residential mobility decreased, while daily COVID-19 cases increased in the event windows compared to estimation windows for both events.
- Event 1 showed initially negative 14-day abnormal growth rates in cases, reaching a maximum of 7.59%.
- Event 2 demonstrated a steady increase in 14-day abnormal growth rates, starting at 1.11% and reaching 23.70%.
Conclusions:
- The commencement of COVID-19 vaccination in Turkey correlated with early public behavioral relaxation, leading to increased daily cases despite strict measures.
- The vaccination of older adults (Event 2) had a more pronounced and immediate effect on case numbers than the vaccination of healthcare personnel (Event 1).
- Cultural sensitivity towards the older adult population in Turkey may explain the stronger impact observed in Event 2.
