Endoscopic ultrasound avoids diagnostic ERCP among the ASGE high-risk group - Experience in an Asian population

A prediction system for common bile duct (CBD) stones was originally published by the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) in 2010 and was last revised in 2019. We wanted to investigate its application in an Asian population, who have different etiologies of bile duct stone formation and accessibility to medical service compared to the West.

This is a single center retrospective study. Patients who received endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for suspected CBD stones were collected from our endoscopic record system over a 10-year period. The accuracy of the revised ASGE criteria was estimated according to the results of EUS. A minimum follow-up of 6 months was required to detect false negative results.

142 patients were enrolled, 87 (61%) patients had CBD stones. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy of the revised ASGE criteria for high-risk patients were 69%, 38%, 64%, 44%, and 57%. 36% of the ASGE-defined high-risk patients negative for CBD stones on EUS. The two significant predictors for CBD stone were CBD dilatation (adjusted OR 3.06, 95% C.I. 1.31-7.17, p = 0.010) and ascending cholangitis (adjusted OR 2.28, 95% C.I. 1.01-5.15, p = 0.047).

ASGE recommends that patients defined as high-risk for choledocholithiasis be considered for direct ERCP without prior need for confirmation imaging. However, our findings indicate a high rate (36%) of patients in that group negative for CBD stones on EUS. Hence, EUS is still be suggested first in selective high-risk patients so that diagnostic ERCP can be avoided in our Asian society.