Assessment of multidimensional drought vulnerability using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Socio-environmental Studies

Background:

• Drought vulnerability assessment requires integrated biophysical and social dimensions.
• Existing indices may not fully capture regional specificities and socio-economic factors.
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework guides climate change impact assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and apply a multidimensional drought vulnerability index (DVI) for Turkey.
• To analyze the spatial distribution of drought vulnerability across Turkish provinces.
• To identify regions and populations most susceptible to drought impacts.

Main Methods:

• A novel DVI was constructed using exposure index (EI), sensitivity index (SI), and adaptive capacity index (ACI) components.
• Nine sub-indicators and 29 proxy variables were employed in the index calculation.
• The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique was utilized to determine indicator and variable weights based on expert knowledge.

Main Results:

• Drought vulnerability varied significantly across Turkey's 81 provinces.
• 17 provinces were classified as "very high" vulnerability, 16 as "high", 15 as "moderate", 17 as "low", and 16 as "very low".
• Socioeconomic underdevelopment and agricultural dependence in southern, central, and southeastern regions increase drought vulnerability.

Conclusions:

• The developed DVI effectively captures multidimensional drought vulnerability across diverse regions.
• Targeted adaptation strategies are crucial for vulnerable provinces, especially those reliant on agriculture.
• Integrating socio-economic factors is essential for comprehensive drought risk management.