Predicting ecosystem changes by a new model of ecosystem evolution

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Computational Modeling

Background:

• Computer simulations often model ecosystems at single time points, neglecting evolutionary history.
• Accurate ecosystem prediction may require incorporating evolutionary processes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel ecosystem model that reproduces evolutionary processes on an oceanic island.
• To investigate the impact of invasive species and eradication efforts on ecosystem recovery.

Main Methods:

• Developed a new ecosystem model for Nakoudojima Island, Ogasawara Islands.
• Simulated the primitive ecosystem, alien species invasion, and feral goat eradication.

Main Results:

• The model successfully reproduced the island's initial forest state and changes post-invasion.
• Simulations indicated forest restoration is unlikely after feral goat eradication.
• Early colonization by fast-growing plants created an oligotrophic state, hindering forest recovery and causing extinctions.

Conclusions:

• The founder effect and past evolutionary events significantly influence future ecosystem dynamics.
• Ecosystem models must include evolutionary history for reliable future predictions.
• Understanding evolutionary processes is key to predicting the resilience and recovery of island ecosystems.