Navigating polycrisis: long-run socio-cultural factors shape response to changing climate

Area of Science:

• Socio-ecological systems
• Climate change adaptation
• Cultural resilience

Background:

• Environmental shocks like floods and earthquakes historically caused societal instability.
• Societies exhibit varied resilience, ranging from collapse to adaptation.
• A clear framework is needed to understand divergent societal outcomes during crises.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a conceptual framework for analyzing societal responses to environmental stressors.
• To investigate the role of long-term societal structures in mediating crisis impacts.
• To identify factors influencing societal resilience and vulnerability to climate shocks.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing the Crisis Database (CrisisDB) program to gather historical data.
• Analyzing the influence of cultural, political, and economic structures on crisis outcomes.
• Examining societal reactions to environmental stressors over decades to centuries.

Main Results:

• Societal outcomes during crises are mediated by existing long-term structures.
• These structures can either enhance resilience and adaptation or promote unrest and collapse.
• Historical analysis reveals complex social-ecological interactions shaping resilience.

Conclusions:

• A framework integrating historical societal structures is crucial for understanding climate shock impacts.
• Identifying resilience-bolstering factors can inform contemporary climate change adaptation strategies.
• The science of culture is essential for effective climate adaptation.