Predictability of course of illness in manic patients positive for life events

The intention of this study was to examine the possibility of predicting course of illness in manic patients, using a stress variable as a predictor, together with other more traditional indices. On the basis of information on three easily available parameters--family history, age at onset, and stress intensity--20 manic patients who had independent life events preceding an index admission were allocated into various risk groups and predictions were then made with regard to future course of illness for 5 years. On follow-up, the predictions were found to be correct in 85% of cases overall, and two high-risk factors were totally predictive.