Efficient Uncertainty Quantification in a Multiscale Model of Pulmonary Arterial and Venous Hemodynamics

Computational hemodynamics models are becoming increasingly useful in the management and prognosis of complex, multiscale pathologies, including those attributed to the development of pulmonary vascular disease. However, diseases like pulmonary hypertension are heterogeneous, and affect both the proximal arteries and veins as well as the microcirculation. Simulation tools and the data used for model calibration are also inherently uncertain, requiring a full analysis of the sensitivity and uncertainty attributed to model inputs and outputs. Thus, this study quantifies model sensitivity and output uncertainty in a multiscale, pulse-wave propagation model of pulmonary hemodynamics. Our pulmonary circuit model consists of fifteen proximal arteries and twelve proximal veins, connected by a two-sided, structured tree model of the distal vasculature. We use polynomial chaos expansions to expedite the sensitivity and uncertainty quantification analyses and provide results for both the proximal and distal vasculature. Our analyses provide uncertainty in blood pressure, flow, and wave propagation phenomenon, as well as wall shear stress and cyclic stretch, both of which are important stimuli for endothelial cell mechanotransduction. We conclude that, while nearly all the parameters in our system have some influence on model predictions, the parameters describing the density of the microvascular beds have the largest effects on all simulated quantities in both the proximal and distal circulation.