Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Biodiversity Conservation
• Climate Change Impacts

Background:

• Species range contraction is a key indicator of global biodiversity loss.
• Both anthropogenic activities and climate change threaten species' habitats.
• Distinguishing between these drivers is crucial for effective conservation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of recent climate change on the northward range contraction of boreal woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec since 1850.
• To differentiate the effects of climate change versus human disturbances on caribou range shifts.
• To inform conservation strategies for at-risk species.

Main Methods:

• Paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalysis data.
• Quantified range shifts by comparing observed southern limits with hindcasted climate conditions.
• Analyzed discrepancies between observed and climate-modeled range contractions.

Main Results:

• Hindcasted southern limits shifted approximately 105 km north, significantly less than the observed 620 km shift since 1850.
• Climate change alone would account for only 17% of the observed caribou range recession.
• Anthropogenic drivers (logging, roads, agriculture, urbanization) are the main factors causing range contraction.

Conclusions:

• Recent climate change has had a minor role in the observed woodland caribou range recession in Quebec.
• Anthropogenic disturbances are the primary drivers of habitat loss and competition, leading to range contraction.
• Revising historical range data in future distribution models is essential for endangered species conservation.