Asymptotically Optimal Adversarial Strategies for the Probability Estimation Framework

The probability estimation framework involves direct estimation of the probability of occurrences of outcomes conditioned on measurement settings and side information. It is a powerful tool for certifying randomness in quantum nonlocality experiments. In this paper, we present a self-contained proof of the asymptotic optimality of the method. Our approach refines earlier results to allow a better characterisation of optimal adversarial attacks on the protocol. We apply these results to the (2,2,2) Bell scenario, obtaining an analytic characterisation of the optimal adversarial attacks bound by no-signalling principles, while also demonstrating the asymptotic robustness of the PEF method to deviations from expected experimental behaviour. We also study extensions of the analysis to quantum-limited adversaries in the (2,2,2) Bell scenario and no-signalling adversaries in higher (n,m,k) Bell scenarios.