Academic dropout or academic success: a model for prediction

Why do some students who qualify for admission to optometry school become academic dropouts while others succeed? This question was addressed in a study which compared the admission records of 21 academic dropouts from three classes at the University of Houston College of Optometry (UHCO) with 269 retained students. Academic dropouts were found to have significantly lower preoptometry grades, lower Optometry College Admission Test (OCAT) scores, attended less competitive (i.e., less selective) undergraduate institutions, scored lower on the California Psychological Inventory (CPI), and were older than retained students. When these differentiating admission variables, excepting age, were applied to a new entering class, prediction of subsequent academic dismissal or serious academic difficulty was highly accurate. However, it was found that such prediction must take into account not only areas of weakness, i.e., academic and psychological factors which place a student at risk, but also areas of strength which give the student an advantage. For all students, regardless of age, sex, or ethnic origin, it was the ratio of "advantage" factors to "risk" factors which gave the most valid prediction of academic success or failure.