Establishment of hypertension risk nomograms based on physical fitness parameters for men and women: a...

Area of Science:

• Cardiovascular Health
• Medical Statistics
• Public Health

Background:

• Hypertension is a major global health concern, particularly in China.
• Accurate risk prediction is crucial for early intervention and prevention strategies.
• Existing hypertension risk models may not fully capture gender-specific nuances in the Chinese population.

Purpose of the Study:

• To establish and validate gender-specific hypertension risk nomograms for Chinese adults.
• To identify key predictors for hypertension risk in men and women.
• To improve the accuracy of hypertension risk prediction in the Chinese population.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from 18,367 Chinese adult participants, including surveys, physical assessments, and biochemical tests.
• Employed least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression for variable selection and multivariable logistic regression to build predictive models.
• Validated nomogram performance using calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Main Results:

• Identified 5 predictors (age, BMI, waistline, hipline, resting heart rate) for men's hypertension risk (ROC: 0.693 training, 0.707 validation).
• Identified 7 predictors (age, BMI, body weight, cardiovascular disease history, waistline, resting heart rate, daily activity) for women's hypertension risk (ROC: 0.720 training, 0.748 validation).
• Nomograms demonstrated strong external validation for both genders.

Conclusions:

• Gender-specific hypertension risk nomograms are essential due to observed prediction heterogeneity.
• Predictive models require demographic, anthropometric, cardiovascular, and physical activity data for optimal accuracy.
• These nomograms offer a valuable tool for personalized hypertension risk assessment in Chinese adults.