Bleeding and Ischemic Risk Prediction in Patients With High Bleeding Risk (an EVOLVE Short DAPT Analysis)

The EVOLVE Short DAPT study demonstrated the safety of truncated dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) in patients with a high bleeding risk (HBR) treated with SYNERGY stent(s) (Boston Scientific Company, Marlborough, Massachusetts). In this population, bleeding and ischemic risk prediction may further inform DAPT decisions. This post hoc analysis of the EVOLVE Short DAPT study identified predictors of ischemic and bleeding events up to 15 months using Cox proportional hazard models. The predicted probabilities of bleeding were calculated using the Breslow method. Of 2,009 enrolled patients, 96.9% of the patients met at least 1 HBR criteria. At 15 months, the cumulative incidences of bleeding and ischemic events were 6.3% and 6.0%, respectively. The risk of bleeding was increased in patients who received oral anticoagulants (hazard ratio [HR] 2.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50 to 3.36, p <0.001) or had peripheral vascular disease (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.56, p = 0.045). The risk of ischemic events was increased in patients with diabetes (HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.24 to 2.78, p <0.01) or congestive heart failure (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.39 to 3.04, p <0.001). Renal insufficiency/failure was associated with both endpoints. There was a strong positive correlation between the predicted probability of ischemic and bleeding events (R = 0.77, p <0.001). In 617 patients with a predicted bleeding risk <4%, ischemic events predominated, and the ischemic and bleeding rates were higher in patients with a predicted bleeding risk ≥4%. Within an HBR cohort, specific characteristics identify patients at a higher risk for ischemic and separately, bleeding events. Increased bleeding risk is tied to increased ischemic risk. In conclusion, standardized risk models are needed to inform DAPT decisions in patients with a higher risk. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02605447.