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Prognostic models based on lymph node density for primary gastrointestinal melanoma: a SEER population-based
Jiaqi Zeng1,2, Lin Zhu3,4, Guanzhou Zhou1
1Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, The First Medical Center, Chinese PLA General Hospital, Beijing, China.
BMJ Open
|October 5, 2023
Summary
This study developed accurate prognostic models for primary gastrointestinal melanoma (PGIM) survival. These models, based on age, stage, lymph node density, and surgery, aid in predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Medical Statistics
- Cancer Epidemiology
Background:
- Primary gastrointestinal melanoma (PGIM) is a rare malignancy.
- Accurate prognostic models are crucial for patient management and treatment planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To construct and validate prognostic models for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with PGIM.
- To identify independent prognostic factors influencing survival outcomes in PGIM.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of 991 PGIM patients from the SEER database.
- Development of prognostic models using multivariable Cox regression analysis.
- Validation of models using concordance index (C-index), time-dependent AUC, and calibration curves.
Main Results:
- Identified independent prognostic factors for OS: age, stage, lymph node density, and surgery.
- Identified independent prognostic factors for CSS: stage, lymph node density, and surgery.
- Validated models demonstrated good discriminative and predictive abilities.
Conclusions:
- The developed prognostic models for OS and CSS are accurate and clinically valuable for PGIM patient prognosis.
- These models can assist clinicians in evaluating and managing patients with primary gastrointestinal melanoma.
