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Does geopolitical risk hinder sustainable development goals? Evidence from a panel analysis
Dinh Trung Nguyen1, Thai Hong Le1, Dinh Dinh Do1
1VNU University of Economics and Business, Vietnam National University Hanoi, Viet Nam.
Journal of Environmental Management
|October 7, 2023
Summary
Geopolitical risk negatively impacts sustainable development goals (SDGs), particularly economic growth and climate action. Enhancing institutional quality can mitigate these adverse effects, crucial for policymakers navigating global uncertainties.
Area of Science:
- Socio-economic impacts of global events
- Sustainable development studies
- International relations and policy
Background:
- Geopolitical risk is a growing concern impacting global stability.
- Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provide a framework for global progress.
- Empirical links between geopolitical risk and SDG achievement remain under-explored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To empirically investigate the direct impact of geopolitical risk on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
- To identify specific SDGs affected by geopolitical tensions.
- To explore moderating factors like institutional quality and resource dependency.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a novel SDG index and its 17 sub-indices from the United Nations.
- Employed panel data analysis for 41 countries spanning 2015-2021.
- Conducted robustness checks and heterogeneity analyses.
Main Results:
- Elevated geopolitical risk significantly hinders progress towards achieving SDGs.
- SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth) and SDG 13 (Climate Action) are most affected.
- The negative impact is pronounced in countries heavily reliant on natural resources.
Conclusions:
- Geopolitical risk poses a substantial threat to global sustainable development efforts.
- Improvements in institutional quality can partially counteract the negative effects of geopolitical risk.
- Policy interventions are needed to safeguard SDG progress amidst increasing global uncertainties.
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