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Leveraging machine learning and prescriptive analytics to improve operating room throughput.

Farid Al Zoubi1, Georges Khalaf2, Paul E Beaulé3

  • 1School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.

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|October 9, 2023
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Adding a fifth arthroplasty surgery per day could significantly reduce hip and knee surgery wait times. This can be achieved by improving efficiency, potentially adding 35-56 cases annually without increasing overtime or costs.

Keywords:
health care efficiencyhigh volume surgerymachine learningoperating room throughputpredictive analyticsprescriptive analyticstime forecast

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Area of Science:

  • Orthopedic Surgery
  • Healthcare Management
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Increasing wait times for hip and knee arthroplasty surgeries present a significant challenge.
  • Overtime hours in surgical departments represent a substantial, often unquantified, cost.
  • Current surgical schedules typically accommodate four arthroplasty procedures per day.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if a fifth arthroplasty surgery can be added to the daily schedule without increasing overtime.
  • To assess the potential impact of increased surgical efficiency on reducing patient wait times.
  • To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of optimizing surgical throughput.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of 460 unsuccessful days to quantify total overtime hours.
  • Isolation of 301 successful days to develop linear regression models for predicting 5th case feasibility.
  • Utilizing predictive models to estimate the number of additional cases achievable at various success rates.

Main Results:

  • Over 465 hours of overtime were recorded across 460 unsuccessful days.
  • A 77% success rate in completing surgeries could yield approximately 35 additional cases annually.
  • Achieving a 100% success rate could result in 56 additional cases per year at no extra cost.

Conclusions:

  • Optimizing surgical efficiency offers a viable strategy to increase arthroplasty case volume.
  • Reallocating resources from overtime to increased surgical capacity can reduce wait lists.
  • Further research into optimal staffing is recommended to support increased surgical output.