Record-breaking heat days disproportionately influence heat perceptions

Area of Science:

• Environmental Psychology
• Climate Science Communication

Background:

• Tangible weather events like heat waves can strengthen belief in climate change.
• The impact of abstract meteorological constructs, such as record-breaking heat days, on climate change perception is less understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate whether local record-breaking heat days, beyond absolute temperatures, influence perceptions of worsening heat.
• To examine how these effects differ across demographic and political groups.

Main Methods:

• Matched historical record heat day data with survey data from U.S. counties in 2022.
• Employed statistical controls for average temperatures, extreme heat days, and demographic factors.

Main Results:

• Each record heat day in a county significantly increased perceptions of worsening excessive heat.
• Sixteen record heat days showed a similar impact on perceptions as the difference between Democrats and Independents.
• The effect was amplified among Republicans, climate change skeptics, and consumers of conservative media.

Conclusions:

• Local record-breaking heat events demonstrably shape public perception of climate change.
• Media framing of record-breaking heat warrants further investigation for its influence on public opinion.
• Targeted communication strategies may be needed for climate change skeptical audiences.