Mathematical model of aging in COVID-19

Area of Science:

• Vascular Biology
• Infectious Diseases
• Medical Imaging

Background:

• COVID-19 infection is associated with vascular complications.
• Intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid arteries is a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis.
• Understanding vascular changes in COVID-19 is crucial for risk stratification.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the intima-media thickness (IMT) of carotid arteries in patients with COVID-19 infection.
• To compare IMT in COVID-19 patients with a historical control group.
• To develop predictive models for IMT based on epidemiological and inflammatory factors.

Main Methods:

• Measured IMT in the common carotid arteries of 50 COVID-19 patients.
• Assessed lung condition using an ultrasound score (It score).
• Developed two prediction models: a socio-epidemiological model and an epidemiological-inflammatory model incorporating biomarkers (fibrinogen, IL-6, CRP).

Main Results:

• COVID-19 patients exhibited significantly higher IMT compared to the control group (0.99-1.0 mm vs. 0.7-0.75 mm).
• The It score for lung condition in COVID-19 patients was 20±6.
• Both prediction models demonstrated high accuracy (87% and 88%) in predicting IMT.

Conclusions:

• COVID-19 infection leads to accelerated aging of blood vessels, evidenced by increased IMT.
• Predictive models incorporating clinical and inflammatory markers can estimate vascular aging in COVID-19.
• These findings highlight the potential for early cardiovascular risk assessment in COVID-19 survivors.