Global termite methane emissions have been affected by climate and land-use changes

Area of Science:

• Biogeochemistry
• Climate Science
• Ecology

Background:

• Termites harbor symbiotic methanogens, contributing to atmospheric methane (CH4) emissions.
• Quantifying the precise magnitude of global termite CH4 flux remains a challenge with significant uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate global termite CH4 emissions using contemporary data and a biogeochemical model.
• To assess historical trends and future projections of termite CH4 emissions under various scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a biogeochemical model framework with updated datasets for emission estimation.
• Analyzed historical (1901-2021) and future (SSP126, SSP585) emission trends.

Main Results:

• Global termite CH4 emissions in 2020 were estimated at 14.8 ± 6.7 Tg CH4 year⁻¹, primarily from tropical/subtropical upland regions.
• Emissions showed a gradual historical increase (approx. +0.7 Tg CH4 year⁻¹) due to elevated CO2, warming, and land-use change.
• Future projections indicate continued increases, ranging from +0.5 to 5.9 Tg CH4 year⁻¹ by 2100.

Conclusions:

• Termite CH4 emissions represent a crucial component of the global methane budget.
• Accurate quantification is vital for climate prediction and developing effective mitigation strategies.