Reproducibility of biophysical in silico neuron states and spikes from event-based partial histories

Biophysically detailed simulations of neuronal activity often rely on solving large systems of differential equations; in some models, these systems have tens of thousands of states per cell. Numerically solving these equations is computationally intensive and requires making assumptions about the initial cell states. Additional realism from incorporating more biological detail is achieved at the cost of increasingly more states, more computational resources, and more modeling assumptions. We show that for both a point and morphologically-detailed cell model, the presence and timing of future action potentials is probabilistically well-characterized by the relative timings of a moderate number of recent events alone. Knowledge of initial conditions or full synaptic input history is not required. While model time constants, etc. impact the specifics, we demonstrate that for both individual spikes and sustained cellular activity, the uncertainty in spike response decreases as the number of known input events increases, to the point of approximate determinism. Further, we show cellular model states are reconstructable from ongoing synaptic events, despite unknown initial conditions. We propose that a strictly event-based modeling framework is capable of representing the complexity of cellular dynamics of the differential-equations models with significantly less per-cell state variables, thus offering a pathway toward utilizing modern data-driven modeling to scale up to larger network models while preserving individual cellular biophysics.