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High-resolution (1 km) Köppen-Geiger maps for 1901-2099 based on constrained CMIP6 projections
Hylke E Beck1, Tim R McVicar2,3, Noemi Vergopolan4,5
1King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia. hylke.beck@gmail.com.
Scientific Data
|October 23, 2023
Summary
Version 2 of Köppen-Geiger climate maps reveal significant land surface changes. Historical data shows 5% shifts, with future projections indicating up to 13% under high-emission scenarios by 2099.
Area of Science:
- Climatology and Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Geographic Information Science
Background:
- The Köppen-Geiger climate classification system is a widely used tool for categorizing global climate zones.
- Understanding historical and projected climate shifts is crucial for environmental and societal planning.
- Previous climate classification maps have limitations in resolution and future projections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce Version 2 of 1-km resolution Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps.
- To provide updated historical climate maps and future projections under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
- To make high-resolution climate data and model outputs publicly accessible.
Main Methods:
- Utilized observation-based climatologies for historical maps (1901-2020).
- Employed downscaled and bias-corrected climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) for future maps (2041-2099).
- Evaluated 67 CMIP6 models, selecting 42 for their plausible CO2-induced warming rates.
Main Results:
- Approximately 5% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) shifted to a different Köppen-Geiger class between 1901-1930 and 1991-2020.
- Future projections indicate significant land surface transitions by 2071-2099: 5% (SSP1-2.6), 8% (SSP2-4.5), and 13% (SSP5-8.5).
- High-resolution maps, confidence estimates, and underlying data are available online.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is demonstrably altering global climate classifications, with substantial shifts observed historically and projected for the future.
- The extent of future climate zone transitions is highly dependent on socioeconomic development and emissions scenarios.
- The updated Köppen-Geiger maps and associated data provide a valuable resource for climate change research and adaptation planning.
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