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Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales.

Yuquan Qu1, Diego G Miralles2, Sander Veraverbeke3

  • 1Institute of Bio- and Geosciences: Agrosphere (IBG-3), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich, Germany. y.qu@fz-juelich.de.

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Wildfire conditions are increasing globally. This study reveals weather patterns (top-down) more often drive wildfires than fuel conditions (bottom-up), impacting climate feedback and management strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Science
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Increasing global temperatures and changing weather patterns are creating more frequent wildfire conditions.
  • Wildfires release significant net carbon emissions, contributing to a positive climate feedback loop that requires monitoring and prediction.
  • Understanding the drivers of wildfires is crucial for effective climate change mitigation and land management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the influence of weather (top-down) and fuel (bottom-up) precursors on wildfire occurrence using a causal inference approach.
  • To differentiate regions dominated by top-down versus bottom-up wildfire drivers.
  • To identify areas where fuel management can be most effective and to assess the complementary predictability of different precursor types.

Main Methods:

  • Application of causal inference methods to analyze the relationships between weather variables and fuel conditions with wildfire events.
  • Spatial analysis to determine the dominant precursor type (top-down or bottom-up) across different global regions.
  • Evaluation of the predictive capabilities of both precursor types across various timescales.

Main Results:

  • Top-down weather precursors were found to dominate wildfire drivers in 73.3% of analyzed regions, compared to 26.7% for bottom-up fuel precursors.
  • Top-down dominance is prevalent in tropical rainforests, mid-latitudes, and eastern Siberian boreal forests.
  • Bottom-up precursors are dominant in North American and European boreal forests, and African and Australian savannahs.

Conclusions:

  • Wildfire ignition is predominantly influenced by weather patterns globally, but fuel conditions are critical in specific ecosystems like boreal forests and savannahs.
  • Identifying regions governed by fuel conditions allows for targeted and potentially more effective fuel management strategies.
  • Both top-down and bottom-up precursors offer complementary predictive power for wildfires across different timescales, with bottom-up precursors enabling seasonal or interannual predictions in certain areas.