Anthropogenic aerosol reduction contributes to faster flash drought onset in a changing climate
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Updated: Nov 6, 2026

Split Point Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of Thermal-Optical Organic/Elemental Carbon Measurements
Published on: September 7, 2019
Jia Wei1,2, Shuo Wang3,4, Weiguang Wang2,5,6
1State Key Laboratory of Climate Resilience for Coastal Cities, Department of Land Surveying and Geospatial Science, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Abstract:
Flash droughts have emerged as severe hazards, posing growing challenges to natural and socioeconomic systems, yet the influence of recent aerosol reductions on their onset remains unclear. Here, we investigate the impacts of aerosols and their underlying mechanisms using multi-source observations and large-ensemble climate simulations. Lower aerosol levels are increasingly linked to severe soil moisture deficits, with aerosol effects on onset-speed variability intensifying across 69.2% of regions. During the onset stage, air temperature pathways associated with aerosol variability account for a larger fraction of onset-speed variability than pathways linked to atmospheric demand. Aerosols have long acted to dampen flash drought development; however, their reduction, acting within a warming climate, contributes to faster flash drought onset. As aerosol emissions decline in the future, the area at higher risk of flash drought acceleration in aerosol-forced simulations is projected to increase by 11.7% during 2070-2099 relative to the historical period of 1990-2019.
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