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Low-Performing Students Confidently Overpredict Their Grade Performance throughout the Semester.

Meltem Karaca1,2, Lisa Geraci2, Nayantara Kurpad3

  • 1Department of Neurology, Boston University Chobanian & Avedisian School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02118, USA.

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|October 27, 2023
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Low-performing students often overestimate exam performance. Their confidence in these inaccurate predictions remains stable throughout the semester, indicating a lack of metacognitive awareness despite repeated testing.

Keywords:
metacognitionmiscalibrationoverconfidencepredictions

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Area of Science:

  • Educational Psychology
  • Cognitive Science
  • Metacognition Research

Background:

  • Students frequently exhibit poor calibration when predicting academic performance, typically overestimating their abilities.
  • This metacognitive deficit, particularly overconfidence, is persistent among low-performing students across multiple assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether students' confidence in their inaccurate grade predictions diminishes over a semester.
  • To determine if persistent overconfidence in low-performing students suggests a lack of developing metacognitive awareness.

Main Methods:

  • Two studies were conducted involving students predicting their performance on four in-class exams.
  • Participants rated their confidence in their grade predictions after each exam.

Main Results:

  • Miscalibration of performance predictions remained consistent across all four tests for low-performing students.
  • Confidence levels in these erroneous predictions also showed stability, not decreasing over the semester.
  • Evidence suggests low-performing students maintained high confidence despite contrary outcomes.

Conclusions:

  • Low-performing students' metacognitive awareness regarding their academic performance does not improve over a semester.
  • Persistent overconfidence in inaccurate predictions highlights a significant challenge in self-assessment for these students.
  • Interventions may be needed to help students develop more accurate self-monitoring and calibration skills.