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Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention
Chadi M Saad-Roy1,2, Arne Traulsen3
1Miller Institute for Basic Research in Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Individual decisions on nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) influence epidemic dynamics. Game theory reveals that NPI effectiveness impacts adherence, with vaccination reducing infections and susceptible individuals.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Behavioral Science
- Game Theory
Background:
- The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic underscored the role of human behavior in disease spread.
- Relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) shifts adherence to individual choice.
- Understanding behavioral-epidemiological feedback is crucial for public health strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the interplay between individual decision-making regarding NPI adherence and epidemic dynamics.
- To analyze the impact of NPI effectiveness and vaccination on disease spread and population behavior.
- To identify conditions where individual incentives may diverge from societal well-being.
Main Methods:
- Integration of a game-theoretic model for individual NPI adherence into an epidemiological framework.
- Analysis of model equilibria under endemic disease conditions.
- Exploration of parameter spaces to understand adherence dynamics and the effects of vaccination.
Main Results:
- Multiple equilibria exist for endemic diseases: zero, complete, or partial NPI adherence.
- Partial adherence equilibrium shows infection levels independent of transmission rates.
- Vaccination effectively reduces endemic infections and, unexpectedly, susceptible individuals during partial adherence.
- NPI effectiveness influences adherence levels, with potential misalignments between individual and societal incentives.
Conclusions:
- Behavioral-epidemiological feedback creates complex dynamics in disease control.
- NPI effectiveness and vaccination strategies require careful consideration of individual decision-making.
- Findings highlight the need for policies that align individual incentives with public health goals to prevent adverse outcomes.
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