Using sentinel nodes to evaluate changing connectivity in a protected area network.

Area of Science:

• Conservation science
• Landscape ecology
• Spatial modeling

Background:

• Global biodiversity loss necessitates well-connected protected area networks.
• International agreements, like the Kunming-Montreal biodiversity agreement, aim to protect 30% of terrestrial lands by 2030.
• Effective tools are needed for planning and monitoring protected area connectivity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present a novel method for evaluating protected area network connectivity using circuit theory.
• To assess the impact of land-use changes on network connectivity.
• To provide a tool for conservation practitioners and planners.

Main Methods:

• Utilized circuit theory models with sentinel park nodes to assess connectivity.
• Assigned lower movement costs to natural areas within protected areas.
• Employed mean pairwise effective resistance (MPER) to quantify network connectivity.
• Calculated a node isolation index to identify regional connectivity differences.

Main Results:

• MPER effectively detected changes in network connectivity under simulated land-use scenarios.
• Increased development costs raised MPER, while adding protected areas decreased it.
• The sentinel node method successfully evaluated connectivity in Ontario's protected area network.
• The node isolation index revealed disparities in connectivity between northern and southern Ontario.

Conclusions:

• The developed circuit theoretic method provides baseline connectivity estimates for protected area networks.
• MPER serves as a valuable indicator for tracking future changes in network connectivity.
• This approach supports informed land-use planning and conservation strategies to meet biodiversity targets.