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Related Concept Videos

Cognitive Development During Adulthood01:30

Cognitive Development During Adulthood

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Cognitive development continues throughout adulthood, undergoing significant shifts across early, middle, and late stages. Individual transition occurs from adolescent idealism to pragmatic and adaptable thinking in early adulthood. During this period, individuals learn to integrate personal beliefs with the recognition that other perspectives are equally valid. Exposure to the complexities of modern society, diverse experiences, and higher education contribute to this adaptive thought process,...
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Actuarial Approach

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The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
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Kaplan-Meier Approach01:24

Kaplan-Meier Approach

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The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...
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Assumptions of Survival Analysis01:15

Assumptions of Survival Analysis

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Survival models analyze the time until one or more events occur, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. These models are widely used across fields like medicine, biology, engineering, and public health to study time-to-event phenomena. To ensure accurate results, survival analysis relies on key assumptions and careful study design.
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jul 12, 2025

A Machine Learning Approach to Design an Efficient Selective Screening of Mild Cognitive Impairment
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Developing a predictive model for mortality in patients with cognitive impairment.

Taiki Sugimoto1,2, Takashi Sakurai1,2,3,4, Taiji Noguchi5

  • 1Department of Prevention and Care Science, Research Institute, National Center for Geriatrics and Gerontology, Obu, Japan.

International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry
|November 1, 2023
PubMed
Summary

A new model predicts 1-5 year mortality in individuals with cognitive impairment, identifying key risk factors like age and physical function. This tool aids memory clinics in assessing patient prognosis.

Keywords:
deathdementiamemory clinicmild cognitive impairmentmortalityolder adultspredictive modelprognosis

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Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Neurology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Cognitive impairment, including mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia, affects a significant portion of the elderly population.
  • Accurate mortality prediction is crucial for clinical management and resource allocation in memory clinics.
  • Identifying risk factors for cause-specific mortality can inform targeted interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive model for all-cause mortality in a cohort of patients with cognitive impairment.
  • To identify risk factors associated with cause-specific mortality in this population.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective cohort study of 2610 patients aged ≥65 years with MCI or dementia.
  • Survival status assessed via postal surveys.
  • Backward stepwise Cox regression used to select predictors; model developed using a scoring approach.
  • Discrimination and calibration assessed using Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plots.

Main Results:

  • Over a mean follow-up of 4.1 years, 20.8% of patients died.
  • Nine predictors identified: age, sex, BMI, gait, physical activity, instrumental activities of daily living, cognitive function, pulmonary disease, and diabetes.
  • The model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for 1-5 year mortality (Harrell's C-statistic: 0.739-0.779).

Conclusions:

  • A validated predictive model for 1-5 year mortality in patients with cognitive impairment has been developed.
  • The model exhibits good discriminative ability and is easily implementable in memory clinic settings.
  • Specific predictors were associated with cause-specific mortality, suggesting potential for targeted research.