A First Step Toward a Family of Morphed Human Body Models Enabling Prediction of Population Injury Outcomes

The injury risk in a vehicle crash can depend on occupant specific factors. Virtual crash testing using finite element human body models (HBMs) to represent occupant variability can enable the development of vehicles with improved safety for all occupants. In this study, it was investigated how many HBMs of different sizes that are needed to represent a population crash outcome through a metamodel. Rib fracture risk was used as an example occupant injury outcome. Morphed HBMs representing variability in sex, height, and weight within defined population ranges were used to calculate population variability in rib fracture risk in a frontal and a side crash. Two regression methods, regularized linear regression with second-order terms and Gaussian process regression (GPR), were used to metamodel rib fracture risk due to occupant variability. By studying metamodel predictive performance as a function of training data, it was found that constructing GPR metamodels using 25 individuals of each sex appears sufficient to model the population rib fracture risk outcome in a general crash scenario. Further, by utilizing the known outcomes in the two crashes, an optimization method selected individuals representative for population outcomes across both crash scenarios. The optimization results showed that 5-7 individuals of each sex were sufficient to create predictive GPR metamodels. The optimization method can be extended for more crashes and vehicles, which can be used to identify a family of HBMs that are generally representative of population injury outcomes in future work.