Aridity creates global thresholds in soil nitrogen retention and availability

Identifying tipping points in the relationship between aridity and gross nitrogen (N) cycling rates could show critical vulnerabilities of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Yet, the global pattern of gross N cycling response to aridity across terrestrial ecosystems remains unknown. Here, we collected 14,144 observations from 451 ¹⁵ N-labeled studies and used segmented regression to identify the global threshold responses of soil gross N cycling rates and soil process-related variables to aridity index (AI), which decreases as aridity increases. We found on a global scale that increasing aridity reduced soil gross nitrate consumption but increased soil nitrification capacity, mainly due to reduced soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and N (MBN) and increased soil pH. Threshold response of gross N production and retention to aridity was observed across terrestrial ecosystems. In croplands, gross nitrification and extractable nitrate were inhibited with increasing aridity below the threshold AI ~0.8-0.9 due to inhibited ammonia-oxidizing archaea and bacteria, while the opposite was favored above this threshold. In grasslands, gross N mineralization and immobilization decreased with increasing aridity below the threshold AI ~0.5 due to decreased MBN, but the opposite was true above this threshold. In forests, increased aridity stimulated nitrate immobilization below the threshold AI ~1.0 due to increased soil C/N ratio, but inhibited ammonium immobilization above the threshold AI ~1.3 due to decreased soil total N and increased MBC/MBN ratio. Soil dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium decreased with increasing aridity globally and in forests when the threshold AI ~1.4 was passed. Overall, we suggest that any projected increase in aridity in response to climate change is likely to reduce plant N availability in arid regions while enhancing it in humid regions, affecting the provision of ecosystem services and functions.