Monthly variations of groundwater arsenic risk under future climate scenarios in 2081-2100

The seasonal variations of shallow groundwater arsenic have been widely documented. To gain insight into the monthly variations and mechanisms behind high groundwater arsenic and arsenic exposure risk in different climate scenarios, the monthly probability of high groundwater arsenic in Hetao Basin was simulated through random forest model. The model was based on arsenic concentrations obtained from 566 groundwater sample sites, and the variables considered included soil properties, climate, topography, and landform parameters. The results revealed that spatial patterns of high groundwater arsenic showed some fluctuations among months under different future climate scenarios. The probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic was found to be elevated at the start of the rainy season, only to rapidly decrease with increasing precipitation and temperature. The probability then increased again after the rainy season. The areas with an increased probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk under SSP126 were typically found in the high-arsenic areas of 2019, while those with decreased probabilities were observed in low-arsenic areas. Under SSP585, which involves a significant increase in precipitation and temperature, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was widely reduced. However, the probability of high total arsenic and trivalent arsenic and arsenic exposure risk was mainly observed in low-arsenic areas from SSP126 to SSP585. In conclusion, the consumption of groundwater for human and livestock drinking remains a threat to human health due to high arsenic exposure under future climate scenarios.