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Updated: Jul 11, 2025
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Swimming Performance Assessment in Fishes
Published on: May 20, 2011
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Predicting future stars: Probability and performance corridors for elite swimmers.
Dennis-Peter Born1, Thomas Stöggl2, Jenny Lorentzen3
1Swiss Swimming Federation, Section for High-Performance Sports, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Institute of Sport Magglingen, Department for Elite Sport, Switzerland.
Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport
|November 15, 2023
Summary
Female swimmers need to reach higher relative speeds earlier than males. Performance plateaus emerge sooner for females, impacting long-term athlete development and the World Junior Championships
Area of Science:
- Sports Science
- Performance Analysis
- Swimming Analytics
Background:
- The World Junior Championships in swimming have new age groups.
- Evaluating these age groups requires scientific benchmarks and performance corridors.
- Predicting success at peak performance age is crucial for talent development.
Purpose of the Study:
- To scientifically evaluate new World Junior Championships age groups.
- Establish performance benchmarks and corridors for predicting success.
- Compare performance corridors between sexes and race distances (freestyle).
Main Methods:
- Longitudinal big data analysis of 347,186 annual best times (male and female swimmers).
- Used Cumulative Poisson distribution to calculate probabilities of achieving different swimmer classes.
- Performance corridors were analyzed relative to World Records using 2-way ANOVA.
Main Results:
- Females require faster relative times at younger ages and plateau earlier than males at national/international levels.
- World-class long-distance swimmers achieve higher points earlier than short-distance swimmers.
- This sex-specific difference is more pronounced in females.
Conclusions:
- New World Junior Championships age groups are questionable for long-term athlete development based on sex-specific performance corridors.
- Benchmarks derived from 131 nations' data offer valid international norms.
- These norms predict success at peak age and guide young swimmers' talent pathways.
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