Prognostic Role of NECPAL CCOMS-ICO Tool on One-Year Mortality in a Hospitalized Older Population

It is essential to establish both the appropriateness of palliative care (PC) and the prognosis in daily clinical practice to guide decision making in the management of older people with multiple advanced chronic diseases. We assessed patients who were appropriate for PC using the NECPAL tool in a hospitalized older population and then we investigated its predictive validity on one-year mortality compared with the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), a validated geriatric prognostic tool. Prospective cohort study. We enrolled 103 older adults hospitalized for acute medical and surgical conditions in a geriatric hospital in Italy. The variables of interest were obtained at baseline through interviews of the ward medical staff and by consulting the computerized medical records. Long-term mortality (one-year) was assessed through the analysis of data acquired from hospital or territorial databases or through telephone contact with caregivers. Mean age was 86.8 ± 7.2 years, with a female prevalence of 54.4%. Prevalence of NECPAL+ patients was 65.1%. MPI low risk: 30.1%; moderate risk: 41.7%; severe risk: 28.2%. Patients deceased during follow-up were 54.4%. NECPAL+ patients were more likely to die, even after adjusting for age, sex, and MPI score (hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, p = 0.020). All the NECPAL categories were associated with one-year mortality. MPI showed a better predictive power than NECPAL (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 vs. 0.75, p = 0.030). After the exclusion of "Comorbidity: ≥2 concurrent diseases" item from NECPAL, its AUC increased to 0.78 with no statistically significant differences from MPI (p = 0.122). NECPAL is useful to identify the appropriateness of PC in hospitalized older adults, also allowing to predict long-term mortality with a performance similar to that of a validated geriatric prognostic tool.