Bayes-optimal inference for spreading processes on random networks

We consider a class of spreading processes on networks, which generalize commonly used epidemic models such as the SIR model or the SIS model with a bounded number of reinfections. We analyze the related problem of inference of the dynamics based on its partial observations. We analyze these inference problems on random networks via a message-passing inference algorithm derived from the belief propagation (BP) equations. We investigate whether said algorithm solves the problems in a Bayes-optimal way, i.e., no other algorithm can reach a better performance. For this, we leverage the so-called Nishimori conditions that must be satisfied by a Bayes-optimal algorithm. We also probe for phase transitions by considering the convergence time and by initializing the algorithm in both a random and an informed way and comparing the resulting fixed points. We present the corresponding phase diagrams. We find large regions of parameters where even for moderate system sizes the BP algorithm converges and satisfies closely the Nishimori conditions, and the problem is thus conjectured to be solved optimally in those regions. In other limited areas of the space of parameters, the Nishimori conditions are no longer satisfied and the BP algorithm struggles to converge. No sign of a phase transition is detected, however, and we attribute this failure of optimality to finite-size effects. The article is accompanied by a Python implementation of the algorithm that is easy to use or adapt.